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Propensity Model

What is a propensity model?

A propensity model predicts the likelihood of a particular event or behavior occurring. It is a subset of predictive modeling. In healthcare, a propensity model might be used to predict the likelihood of a patient or healthcare consumer having a certain medical condition or using certain healthcare services.

Propensity models typically use historical data to identify patterns and relationships between variables that are associated with the target event or behavior. The model then uses these patterns to make predictions for new or unseen data, accounting for the independent and confounding variables affecting behavior.

These models can be created using various techniques, including logistic regression, decision trees, neural networks, and other machine learning algorithms. The goal is to develop a model that accurately predicts the likelihood of the condition or event, helping organizations and companies make more informed decisions.

How can a propensity model assist and improve healthcare?

Organizations use propensity models when they want to target resources, marketing efforts, or interventions more efficiently. In healthcare, propensity models are valuable tools for understanding healthcare consumer behavior. They usually leverage de-identified clinical and consumer data, demographic information, and other relevant data to predict health-related behaviors or conditions.

For example, propensity models can be used to predict the likelihood of patient engagement in healthcare programs, adherence to treatment plans, or participation in preventive care activities. This information can be used for targeted preventive measures, early interventions, and personalized health recommendations.

Healthcare marketers can benefit from propensity models, too, by identifying consumers who are likely to have a certain condition or respond to specific health-related campaigns or interventions. For example, a propensity model might be used to pinpoint commercially insured patients in a specific geographic area with a high propensity for bariatric surgery and who are heavy users of social media platforms.

Customizing marketing messages based on predicted propensities can enhance the impact of healthcare promotion, education, and sales efforts. Overall, propensity models play a pivotal role in informed decision-making across industries.